The Iran Nuclear Deal Explained
Will it be possible to keep the nuclear deal with Iran??
According to experts, a possible military escalation in the region minimizes the chances of cooperation on Tehran’s nuclear program
Tensions between the United States and Iran, which have not subsided since the death of General Qasem Soleimani, remain in the center of world attention. On Tuesday, the Iranian parliament voted to list the Pentagon as a terrorist organization. Tehran also developed “13 options” for revenge for the death of Suleimani. In Washington, meanwhile, they say that the elimination of Soleimani was the right move, and that he was responsible for the killings of many Americans. The United States warns of its readiness to resolutely respond to any possible provocations.
In parallel with this, another topic of widespread concern is developing, also directly related to Tehran, namely, its decision to completely cease to comply with all points of the agreement on Iran’s nuclear program – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPC)
We will remind, the United States withdrew from the JDPP in 2018 and restored sanctions against Tehran.
Meanwhile, the European Union expressed the hope that the nuclear deal can still be saved, despite the latest steps by Iran. The Russian Foreign Ministry also called on all parties to act in a constructive manner..
US President Donald Trump allowed the possibility of negotiations on a new nuclear agreement with Tehran, White House adviser Kelliann Conway said yesterday, specifying if Iran “wants to behave like a normal country …”
As the head of the Center for International Security of the National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, academician Alexey Arbatov, the course of events does not look like the nuclear deal can be salvaged. He also recalled that Iran has firmly stated that it will no longer comply with any of the conditions of the JPSA..
Now, according to the academician, the only option remains, based on the fact that Russia and the United States will undertake “titanic efforts” to organize negotiations with Iran in order to prevent a slide into a direct military conflict in the region. “Because the overcoming (by Tehran) of a certain“ red line ”- the restoration of the Iranian nuclear program and the enrichment of uranium – will inevitably trigger Israel’s preemptive strikes, he says. – Israel will not wait long and will strike at all relevant targets. And this is already a big armed conflict, in which big powers may be drawn “.
The efforts of European diplomacy may be in vain, Alexei Arbatov believes. According to him, Trump does not pay much attention to his allies and, moreover, threatens them with sanctions..
At the same time, the academician believes that Iran will not speed up the creation of a nuclear bomb, but will restore the status quo that prevailed before the conclusion of the nuclear deal in 2015..
“Iran does not need to force anything. He needs to resume the process of uranium enrichment, and this will lead to the fact that very soon Tehran will again gain the necessary stock of strategic raw materials, which can be quickly re-enriched to a weapons-grade level, that is, it will be on the nuclear threshold, which he actually was striving for before under pressure from sanctions, agreed to the deal. But Israel will not allow this to be done, “the political scientist believes..
Independent Military Reviewer Pavel Felgenhauer thinks that today there is no real chance of saving the nuclear deal. It seems to him that now it is no longer about preserving the JDPP, but about the scale of the upcoming conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East..
“The question is: will there be separate clashes, a major regional war or a world war,” he argues in a commentary for the Russian service of the Voice of America. – There are different degrees of probability of one scenario or another. Many are inclined to believe that everything will be limited to serious skirmishes. That they will develop into a regional war, I think, 50:50 percent. And there is less chance of the conflict escalating into a global war, with the involvement of different countries, including Russia “.
As the political scientist sees it, one can seriously think about the fate of the nuclear deal only after the passions have subsided in the region. At the same time, he found it difficult to say how ready Tehran is to actually continue to work on creating a nuclear bomb: “At the official level, the Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Khamenei, said that nuclear weapons were a“ grave sin ”from the point of view of Islam. However, how much they are going to live up to their claims or not is another matter. Again, it is not clear whether the Iranians will be able to create a usable warhead and whether they will use it … On this score, even guessing is pointless. “.
Israel has cruise missiles with tactical nuclear weapons aimed at Iran, which is also probably to some extent a deterrent, suggested Pavel Felgenhauer.
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