Focus on Crimea: The Impact of Russia’s Aggression
A threat&# 160; aggressive actions of Russia in the Crimean direction&# 160; remains&# 160;
According to the Ukrainian military, the Kremlin plans to unblock the Dnieper water supply&# 160; to the annexed peninsula
KIEV – In the Crimean direction, the Ukrainian military “performed a certain part of the work to increase the combat capabilities of the troops.” Commander of the Joint Forces Sergei Naev said this in a comment to the RBK-Ukraine news agency..
“We clearly understand all the scenarios for the development of the situation in this direction and adequately assess the capabilities of the RF Armed Forces regarding the build-up of military force in a short time. Therefore, we have already completed a certain part of the work to increase the combat capabilities of our troops in this direction, and we continue this work every day. The situation is under control “, – summed up on July 1 Sergey Naev in the RBK-Ukraine article “War for Water: Could Russia Attack Ukraine Again Due to Drought in Crimea”.
He noted that “there is no information about the activation of enemy forces in the southern direction, namely from the Crimea, in the command of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”.
“But we have strengthened all types of intelligence, from which information is received every day,” stressed Sergei Naev.
At the same time, in an interview with the Ukrainian National News Agency “Ukrinform”, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Vadim Skibitsky noted that in Crimea “now there is a build-up of airborne and naval components, the possibilities of using military transport aviation are expanding”.
When asked whether Russia abandoned the idea of ”breaking through” a land corridor to Crimea and possibly even to Transnistria? “He replied that” this is not an idea, but a plan. “.
“It is obvious that the strategic plan for the use of the RF Armed Forces to create a land corridor and deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and the World Ocean remains relevant in Russia,” Vadim Skibitsky emphasized..
He also did not rule out the possibility of using Russian troops to provide access to the dam on the North Crimean Canal to provide Crimea with Dnieper water. “This threat remains,” said Vadim Skibitsky.
Invasion threats remain
According to the chairman of the board of the Center for Strategic Research Pavel Zhovnirenko, the last six years, threats from Russia, including in the Crimean direction, have not disappeared.
“Putin’s policy, either indirectly or directly, says that he does not see an independent Ukraine. The country, which has been headed by the president for twenty years, and which today legitimizes the right to elect its leader by two lines, is a threat to Ukraine, and it remains. Talking about the Crimean direction or the time when this may happen is not correct. Such a threat can be in any other direction, along the entire perimeter of Ukraine, excluding the borders with NATO countries, “Pavel Zhovnirenko says to the correspondent of the Russian service of the Voice of America..
He believes that Ukrainian society is always capable of repelling any aggression by Russia..
“I have no objective data on the combat readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, however, any extraordinary situation, as the history of Ukraine shows, contributes to the mobilization of Ukrainian civil society,” stresses Pavel Zhovnirenko.
Intruding is easy, controlling the situation is difficult
Project Manager, Digests Think Tank & Analytics Ukraine Vadim Khomakha believes that Russia is not ready for a full-scale escalation against Ukraine for economic reasons.
“It is easy to invade, it is much more difficult to control the situation further. If this war takes place, it will not end quickly, Russia is not ready for this now, all the more so given the blow it received from the coronavirus. Therefore, the Kremlin will act through Ukrainian politicians “, – Vadim Khomakha tells the correspondent of the Russian service of the” Voice of America “.
The West, he said, intends to continue to support Ukraine, and Russia, in case of aggression, will face a new package of sanctions.
At the same time, Vadim Khomakha notes that instead of assessing threats from Russia, Ukrainian officials should focus on finding a strategy to return the occupied territories – Crimea and certain areas of Donbass..
“Now this issue in Crimea is not being resolved. By military means, of course, no, Ukraine does not have such forces. Economically possible. Although Crimea today is turning into an outpost, it may already be nuclear, ”notes Vadim Khomakha.
The issue of supplying Dnieper fresh water to Crimea, in his opinion, remains relevant, and the Kremlin will use lobbyists in the Ukrainian government to resolve this issue..
“Putin will try to make sure that Ukraine provides water on its own without military intervention,” Vadim Khomakha believes, noting that the majority in the Verkhovna Rada is incapable of pursuing an anti-Putin policy..
Protests over the “referendum” in Crimea
The Foreign Ministry of Ukraine protested against the illegal visit to Crimea of MEPs, including a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, President of the Franco-Russian Dialogue Association Thierry Mariani.
“This visit is carried out in violation of Ukrainian legislation on access to the temporarily occupied territory and does not have an official status,” the official statement on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine says..
It notes that “any so-called elections, referendums, voting held by Russia in the temporarily occupied territory are a gross violation of the principles of international law […]”.
A press release on the website of the European Parliament notes on July 1 that the European Parliament does not observe the “constitutional referendum” that is taking place in Russia these days..
Participation in the events on the “illegally annexed Crimean peninsula” is assessed in the European Parliament as a personal initiative of individual deputies.
“The European Parliament has not been invited to observe this electoral process, and therefore will not comment on either the process or the results that will be announced later,” the press release said..