A Guide for Geopolitical Analysis; Consistency in Foreign Policy
Moscow does not expect changes in US policy after the arrival of the new administration
Opinions of political scientists on the prospects for Russian-American relations under the new US administration&# 160;
Moscow does not hope for dramatic changes in Russian-American relations under the new US administration. This was stated on Thursday, November 12 by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergei Lavrov during a lengthy interview with the media..
According to him, in the Russian direction in the Kremlin “no revolutionary changes are expected.” Lavrov also suggested that in the event of the inauguration of Joseph Biden, he will pursue a foreign policy similar to that of Barack Obama. In particular, according to the minister, this will apply to the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iranian nuclear program..
We will remind, Biden was the vice-president in the administration of Barack Obama. Obama, like two other former Democratic presidents, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, have already congratulated the team of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on the victory..
In addition, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry announced the introduction by Moscow of “mirror” sanctions against Berlin and Paris in the context of the case of the attempt on the life of Alexei Navalny and put forward a version that the oppositionist was poisoned either on his way to Germany or in general on its territory.
Andrei Kortunov: “It was during the Trump years that the main load-bearing structures of Russian-American relations were destroyed”
Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrei Kortunov, in a commentary for the Russian service of the Voice of America, recalled that Obama’s foreign policy was heterogeneous. According to him, in relation to Russia, it is divided into two parts.
“There was a period of reset, when Russian-American relations developed very dynamically and almost reached their peak in the entire post-Soviet history,” he says. – And there was the second period, which began after the return to the presidency of Vladimir Putin, but became especially clear after 2014 (since the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the hybrid war with Ukraine – V.V.). This period was characterized by a rather rapid deterioration in bilateral relations and a clear dominance of rivalry in the overall balance sheet. “.
At the same time, Andrei Kortunov expressed doubt, Sergei Lavrov had in mind the period of perestroika. If this is the case, as the political scientist sees it, one can say with good reason that Moscow expects the Biden administration’s policies to be more of a continuation of the Trump administration’s policies. “Indeed, over the past four years, the same trends have continued that began during the second term of President Obama,” he explained. – And in this sense, American policy was quite consistent. Yes, there were, of course, certain changes in Trump’s rhetoric, but they did not change the content of bilateral relations. It was during the Trump years that their main supporting structures were destroyed “.
Perhaps Minister Lavrov also meant that Democrats have always paid more attention to, say, human rights than Republicans, the political scientist admitted: “And here Moscow and Washington are likely to have additional potential for conflict. Perhaps it was also meant that the staffing of the Biden administration will reveal continuity with the Obama cabinet. Many people who worked for Barack Obama will find a place in the new team. “.
So, apparently, Lavrov’s words mean that nothing fundamentally different from what we have observed in recent years, Russia should not expect Joe Biden to come to power, summed up the Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council.
Igor Yakovenko: The Kremlin does not expect anything good from Biden’s coming to power
In turn, a sociologist and publicist, former secretary general of the Union of Journalists of Russia Igor Yakovenko found it difficult to say how much Biden’s policy will repeat Obama’s. From his point of view, these are actually two quite different politicians..
“But, of course, the fact that both of them are from the Democratic Party, and they are characterized by liberal internationalism, the desire to protect human rights outside the United States, it lies on the surface,” said the interlocutor of the Voice of America. – Actually, both Biden and Obama spoke about this more than once “.
Therefore, I think that the Kremlin is afraid of this, not least, but the list of their potential griefs is not limited to this alone, stated Igor Yakovenko.
“It is clear that the Biden administration will restore the transatlantic unity, which suffered markedly during the Trump administration,” the journalist said. – Biden will also rebuild a united front of the West against Putin. At least, the rhetoric of the new American administration will be exactly like that, and the policy, most likely, too “.
In general, the coming of Biden to the presidency is very bad for both Putin and Lavrov, Igor Yakovenko believes..