Ruling party leads in Georgia’s parliamentary vote: Exit polls
Georgian opposition will not take part in the second round of parliamentary elections&# 160;
In the absence of competition, the parliamentary majority will belong to &# 171; Georgian&# 160; dream&# 187; &# 160;
On November 21, Georgia will host the second round of parliamentary elections, but most likely, representatives of the ruling Georgian Dream will win in all single-mandate constituencies. The reason is that eight opposition parties, which in the first round of elections on October 31, gained enough votes to get into parliament, accuse the authorities of falsifying the voting results and boycott the second round in protest, demanding the appointment of a repeat election..
Accordingly, if candidates from the ruling party win in single-mandate constituencies, Georgian Dream will receive 91 out of 150 seats in the new parliament. This is enough for the parliament of the new convocation to convene, and the deputies recognize its powers..
Recall that after counting 100% of the votes, the Georgian CEC announced that according to proportional lists, the ruling Georgian Dream gained 48.15%, and the main opposition force, the United National Movement – Strength in Unity, received 27.14%. They are followed by seven parties with three percent or less, including the pro-Russian Alliance of Patriots..
Position of international partners
Georgia’s international partners recognize the legitimacy of the Georgian elections and believe that in order to reveal the seriousness of violations, the opposition should challenge this not by boycotting, but by appealing the violations in court..
At the same time, State Department officials noted on November 18 that despite the low level of confidence in Georgia in judicial decisions, the opposition should continue to fight within the walls of parliament..
With the mediation of the US and EU ambassadors in Georgia, two rounds of negotiations were held with the participation of representatives of all parties that entered the new parliament, and separate meetings were held with each of the opposition leaders. However, the opposition announced on November 20 that it does not intend to change its decision to boycott the second round of elections. At the same time, the parties agreed that another, third round of negotiations between the opposition and the ruling Georgian Dream will take place with the mediation of diplomats..
Professor at the Georgian Institute of Public Administration Tornike Sharashenidze noted in a commentary for the Russian service of the Voice of America that, given the “sad reality” – the fact that neither side makes concessions – the new parliament of Georgia will be staffed with representatives of one, i.e., the ruling party.
“Then everything will go according to the principle: the winners are not judged. If the authorities are able to adequately respond to the challenges and the crisis and normally rule the country, then the opposition will be marginalized, but if the Georgian Dream has serious failures, then, most likely, early elections are inevitable, in which the ruling force will no longer be able to win, ” – the political scientist believes.
Political scientist Gia Khukhashvili, in turn, believes that with any development of events in the country there is already a crisis.
Khukhashvili points out that if Georgian Dream has 48% of support today, then the remaining 52% of the population is an opposition-minded electorate. Even if initially the ruling force is able to assemble a parliament and begin to rule the country as usual, within a certain time the authorities will face challenges that cannot be overcome without the consolidation of society..
“In addition to the political crisis, there are serious state challenges in the country, this is a pandemic, very high social and economic risks, as well as dramatic processes in the region. Proceeding from the fact that the Georgian society is split into two parts, its consolidation in the face of serious challenges is unlikely. So, I think, if there is no consensus with the opposition, in the end, power paralysis is inevitable, “Gia Khukhashvili said in an interview with the Russian service of the Voice of America..