American political scientists on the upcoming presidential elections

A Political Scientist’s Look at the 2020 US Elections (Presentation)

American political scientists on the upcoming presidential elections

American political scientists on the upcoming presidential elections

Experts on how protests, pandemic and the state of the economy will affect the election campaign

Although former Vice President Joe Biden has yet to officially receive a Democratic nomination, American political analysts believe he will be the one who will fight incumbent President Donald Trump for the Oval Office in the November general election..

Robert Shapiro, professor of political science and international and public relations at Columbia University in New York, notes that both candidates have a lot to offer their constituents..

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“Among the advantages of Donald Trump is his strong electoral base, which for the most part will support him no matter what he does. The fact that he kept his promises means that he is going to do so in the future. He carried out tax reform, deregulated business, and appointed a number of conservative judges. Biden, in turn, is extremely popular with those voters whose votes were decisive in the midterm elections. He is very popular with African American voters. The key issue for him at the moment is police work. If he can give the right answer to it, then this will allow him to enlist support among some Republicans, ”the political scientist said..

Robert Shapiro adds that there are a number of factors working against both the incumbent and his potential rival..

For Donald Trump, the state of the economy remains a painful issue – the unemployment rate is over 13%; massive demonstrations against police violence continue.

Joe Biden, in turn, is a less charismatic leader compared to Trump.

“The big question remains whether the Democrats will be able to take control of the Senate. The current situation has given impetus, at least for the moment, in this direction. Of course, there is still a lot of time before the elections. Republicans are perceived as a party that supports the police. This is what will work in favor of Trump and the Republicans anyway. The Democrats’ only hope is that Biden has had a good track record with this constituency in the past. Although, it is unlikely that the voices of the police will be decisive, ”Shapiro said..

University of Dallas professor Gladden Pappin notes that at the beginning of the year, the advantage was on the side of the incumbent. According to Peppin, the economy was in pretty good shape, and the Democratic Party could not determine the direction of its movement. The situation has changed significantly recently..

“The election campaign is just beginning in the sense that the party congresses will be held later. The elections are still five months away. Most of the wavering states that determine elections currently lean in Biden’s favor over Trump. But there is still a long way to go. President Trump is in a delicate situation, reacting to the situation on the streets when he takes a wait and see attitude and does nothing. In this case, he looks weak for his electoral base. On the other hand, if he reacts aggressively to protests, he risks looking too harsh and may lose some of the narrative, like a president who brings stability. At the moment, Trump basically continues to make speeches and comments, and write tweets, “- said the professor..

Gladden Peppin believes that Democrats will fail to establish control over the Senate.

“I think he remains under the control of the GOP. Voters in the oscillating states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Ohio, Florida, are good people. They don’t like racism. They will certainly react negatively to any association with them in this regard. But on the other hand, they also like order and stability, ”the expert believes..

Professor Peppin notes: how exactly the current situation will affect the voting in November, it will be possible to say when the presidential candidates begin active debate.

American political scientists on the upcoming presidential elections
  • Alexander Yanevsky

    Journalist. Graduated Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Worked on the channel «1 + 1» and «Channel 5». On «Voice of America» since 2014. Was one of two correspondents «Voices of America», covering the Russian presidential elections in 2018 from Moscow. He pays attention to the topic of US-Ukrainian and US-Russian relations. Actively covered the case of Paul Manafort and Maria Butina.

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